Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning agent to generate a local approximate posterior, the agents transmit their local posteriors to other agents in the network, and finally each agent combines its set of received local posteriors. The key insight in this work is that, for many Bayesian models, approximate inference schemes destroy symmetry and dependencies in the model that are crucial to the correct application of Bayes' rule when combining the local posteriors. The proposed method addresses this issue by including an additional optimization step in the combination procedure that accounts for these broken dependencies. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that the decentralized method provides advantages in computational performance and predictive test likelihood over previous batch and distributed methods.Comment: This paper was presented at UAI 2014. Please use the following BibTeX citation: @inproceedings{Campbell14_UAI, Author = {Trevor Campbell and Jonathan P. How}, Title = {Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference}, Booktitle = {Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI)}, Year = {2014}

Transferable Pedestrian Motion Prediction Models at Intersections

One desirable capability of autonomous cars is to accurately predict the pedestrian motion near intersections for safe and efficient trajectory planning. We are interested in developing transfer learning algorithms that can be trained on the pedestrian trajectories collected at one intersection and yet still provide accurate predictions of the trajectories at another, previously unseen intersection. We first discussed the feature selection for transferable pedestrian motion models in general. Following this discussion, we developed one transferable pedestrian motion prediction algorithm based on Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) that infers pedestrian intentions and predicts future trajectories based on observed trajectory. We evaluated our algorithm on a dataset collected at two intersections, trained at one intersection and tested at the other intersection. We used the accuracy of augmented semi-nonnegative sparse coding (ASNSC), trained and tested at the same intersection as a baseline. The result shows that the proposed algorithm improves the baseline accuracy by 40% in the non-transfer task, and 16% in the transfer task

Truncated Random Measures

Completely random measures (CRMs) and their normalizations are a rich source of Bayesian nonparametric priors. Examples include the beta, gamma, and Dirichlet processes. In this paper we detail two major classes of sequential CRM representations---series representations and superposition representations---within which we organize both novel and existing sequential representations that can be used for simulation and posterior inference. These two classes and their constituent representations subsume existing ones that have previously been developed in an ad hoc manner for specific processes. Since a complete infinite-dimensional CRM cannot be used explicitly for computation, sequential representations are often truncated for tractability. We provide truncation error analyses for each type of sequential representation, as well as their normalized versions, thereby generalizing and improving upon existing truncation error bounds in the literature. We analyze the computational complexity of the sequential representations, which in conjunction with our error bounds allows us to directly compare representations and discuss their relative efficiency. We include numerous applications of our theoretical results to commonly-used (normalized) CRMs, demonstrating that our results enable a straightforward representation and analysis of CRMs that has not previously been available in a Bayesian nonparametric context.Comment: To appear in Bernoulli; 58 pages, 3 figure

FASTER: Fast and Safe Trajectory Planner for Flights in Unknown Environments

High-speed trajectory planning through unknown environments requires algorithmic techniques that enable fast reaction times while maintaining safety as new information about the operating environment is obtained. The requirement of computational tractability typically leads to optimization problems that do not include the obstacle constraints (collision checks are done on the solutions) or use a convex decomposition of the free space and then impose an ad-hoc time allocation scheme for each interval of the trajectory. Moreover, safety guarantees are usually obtained by having a local planner that plans a trajectory with a final "stop" condition in the free-known space. However, these two decisions typically lead to slow and conservative trajectories. We propose FASTER (Fast and Safe Trajectory Planner) to overcome these issues. FASTER obtains high-speed trajectories by enabling the local planner to optimize in both the free-known and unknown spaces. Safety guarantees are ensured by always having a feasible, safe back-up trajectory in the free-known space at the start of each replanning step. Furthermore, we present a Mixed Integer Quadratic Program formulation in which the solver can choose the trajectory interval allocation, and where a time allocation heuristic is computed efficiently using the result of the previous replanning iteration. This proposed algorithm is tested extensively both in simulation and in real hardware, showing agile flights in unknown cluttered environments with velocities up to 3.6 m/s.Comment: IROS 201

Motion Planning Among Dynamic, Decision-Making Agents with Deep Reinforcement Learning

Robots that navigate among pedestrians use collision avoidance algorithms to enable safe and efficient operation. Recent works present deep reinforcement learning as a framework to model the complex interactions and cooperation. However, they are implemented using key assumptions about other agents' behavior that deviate from reality as the number of agents in the environment increases. This work extends our previous approach to develop an algorithm that learns collision avoidance among a variety of types of dynamic agents without assuming they follow any particular behavior rules. This work also introduces a strategy using LSTM that enables the algorithm to use observations of an arbitrary number of other agents, instead of previous methods that have a fixed observation size. The proposed algorithm outperforms our previous approach in simulation as the number of agents increases, and the algorithm is demonstrated on a fully autonomous robotic vehicle traveling at human walking speed, without the use of a 3D Lidar

Efficient Constellation-Based Map-Merging for Semantic SLAM

Data association in SLAM is fundamentally challenging, and handling ambiguity well is crucial to achieve robust operation in real-world environments. When ambiguous measurements arise, conservatism often mandates that the measurement is discarded or a new landmark is initialized rather than risking an incorrect association. To address the inevitable `duplicate' landmarks that arise, we present an efficient map-merging framework to detect duplicate constellations of landmarks, providing a high-confidence loop-closure mechanism well-suited for object-level SLAM. This approach uses an incrementally-computable approximation of landmark uncertainty that only depends on local information in the SLAM graph, avoiding expensive recovery of the full system covariance matrix. This enables a search based on geometric consistency (GC) (rather than full joint compatibility (JC)) that inexpensively reduces the search space to a handful of `best' hypotheses. Furthermore, we reformulate the commonly-used interpretation tree to allow for more efficient integration of clique-based pairwise compatibility, accelerating the branch-and-bound max-cardinality search. Our method is demonstrated to match the performance of full JC methods at significantly-reduced computational cost, facilitating robust object-based loop-closure over large SLAM problems.Comment: Accepted to IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

Complexity Analysis and Efficient Measurement Selection Primitives for High-Rate Graph SLAM

Sparsity has been widely recognized as crucial for efficient optimization in graph-based SLAM. Because the sparsity and structure of the SLAM graph reflect the set of incorporated measurements, many methods for sparsification have been proposed in hopes of reducing computation. These methods often focus narrowly on reducing edge count without regard for structure at a global level. Such structurally-naive techniques can fail to produce significant computational savings, even after aggressive pruning. In contrast, simple heuristics such as measurement decimation and keyframing are known empirically to produce significant computation reductions. To demonstrate why, we propose a quantitative metric called elimination complexity (EC) that bridges the existing analytic gap between graph structure and computation. EC quantifies the complexity of the primary computational bottleneck: the factorization step of a Gauss-Newton iteration. Using this metric, we show rigorously that decimation and keyframing impose favorable global structures and therefore achieve computation reductions on the order of $r^2/9$ and $r^3$, respectively, where $r$ is the pruning rate. We additionally present numerical results showing EC provides a good approximation of computation in both batch and incremental (iSAM2) optimization and demonstrate that pruning methods promoting globally-efficient structure outperform those that do not.Comment: Pre-print accepted to ICRA 201

Estimation-based synthesis of H∞-optimal adaptive FIR filtersfor filtered-LMS problems

This paper presents a systematic synthesis procedure for H∞-optimal adaptive FIR filters in the context of an active noise cancellation (ANC) problem. An estimation interpretation of the adaptive control problem is introduced first. Based on this interpretation, an H∞ estimation problem is formulated, and its finite horizon prediction (filtering) solution is discussed. The solution minimizes the maximum energy gain from the disturbances to the predicted (filtered) estimation error and serves as the adaptation criterion for the weight vector in the adaptive FIR filter. We refer to this adaptation scheme as estimation-based adaptive filtering (EBAF). We show that the steady-state gain vector in the EBAF algorithm approaches that of the classical (normalized) filtered-X LMS algorithm. The error terms, however, are shown to be different. Thus, these classical algorithms can be considered to be approximations of our algorithm. We examine the performance of the proposed EBAF algorithm (both experimentally and in simulation) in an active noise cancellation problem of a one-dimensional (1-D) acoustic duct for both narrowband and broadband cases. Comparisons to the results from a conventional filtered-LMS (FxLMS) algorithm show faster convergence without compromising steady-state performance and/or robustness of the algorithm to feedback contamination of the reference signal